Humber in a Box is based on scientific research conducted at the University of Hull. This has been published in the journal Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Sciences, and can be viewed here (subscription required).

The research was conducted as part of the Dynamic Humber Project (DHP) in the Centre of Adaptive Science and Sustainability (CASS). The aim of the DHP was to forecast the future physical, social and economic change of the Humber Estuary and surrounding area.

Part of this was to develop a numerical model that can predict likely changes to the Estuary itself for the next 100 years. Estuaries are complex and have required complex models to simulate their behaviours, however, these complex models take a long time to process and are often not practical. CAESAR-Lisflood is a reduced-complexity model which reduces the simulation down to only the aspects required for a useful result, making it possible to simulate long periods even in complex environments.

During the course of the DHP, the Humber and East Coast of England suffered flooding from the 5th December 2013 storm surge. The CAESAR-Lisflood model was able to reproduce this flooding, and this has allowed it to be used in prediction of future flood risk, incorporate various scenarios for improving the defences around the Estuary. This work, in partnership with the Environment Agency, is still ongoing.


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